Start with the balance
Assess whether physical supply is tightening or loosening and whether inventories confirm the narrative.
Futures & Commodities • Strategic Framework
The Iron Reserve
Observe the physical world behind the chart.
A real-asset framework that combines price structure with inventories, seasonality, supply constraints, and futures-market mechanics.
Read the curve
Use contango, backwardation, and roll dynamics to understand market stress and holding costs.
Respect seasonality
Account for weather, harvest, refinery cycles, transport, and recurring demand patterns.
Plan for gaps
Size positions for overnight geopolitical, weather, and supply shocks.
Pre-Trade Review
Command checklist
The framework is incomplete until the trader can answer each question before entry.
- What is happening to inventories?
- What does the curve signal?
- Is seasonality supportive?
- What is the contract specification?
- Can the position withstand a gap?