Operate inside the window
Focus on expirations generally between 7 and 45 days so the thesis has a defined horizon and time decay remains measurable.
Options / Derivatives • Strategic Framework
The Iron Citadel
Asymmetric leverage. Defined risk.
A disciplined options framework focused on 7- to 45-day expirations, implied-volatility mispricings near macro inflection points, and positions whose maximum loss is known before entry.
Price volatility first
Evaluate implied volatility against realized volatility, event risk, skew, and the expected path—not direction alone.
Define the breach
Use defined-risk vertical spreads or asymmetric long-option contracts. Maximum capital allocation is 1.5% per planned position.
Exit by doctrine
For credit spreads, consider closing near 50% of maximum profit. For long-premium positions, the objective may be 100% or greater returns when the thesis develops, while protecting against total premium loss.
Pre-Trade Review
Command checklist
The framework is incomplete until the trader can answer each question before entry.
- Is implied volatility rich or cheap?
- What event is the market pricing?
- What is the exact maximum loss?
- How fast will theta accelerate?
- Is the bid-ask spread acceptable?
- What is the planned exit?